The probability of an earthquake in the Cyprus is very low - Earthquake experts from Turkey

After the devastating earthquakes described as the disaster of the century that took place in Turkey on February 6 and 20, leading to over 40,000 deaths in Turkey and Syria, the chance of an earthquake happening in Cyprus became a top agenda in Cyprus.

Evaluating the issue, earthquake experts from Turkey evaluated the possibility of an earthquake in Cyprus.

Gazi University Geology Professor, Earthquake Expert, Academician Professor Doctor Süleyman Pampal, Earthquake expert Prof. Dr. Sukru Ersoy, Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan's common view is that there is always the risk of an earthquake in Cyprus, but it should not be interpreted as if it will happen immediately. On the other hand, Geologist Prof. Dr. Okan Tüysüz, expressed his opinion that there is a possibility of an earthquake in the sea between Samandag and Cyprus, and that he thinks it will not affect the land much. 

Gazi University Geology Professor, Earthquake Specialist, Academic Professor Doctor Süleyman Pampal said that there is no such thing as an earthquake in the area where Cyprus is located.

Expressing that there have been earthquakes greater than 8 in the history of Cyprus, Pampal said that there have always been earthquakes greater than 8 and the danger of tsunami in Cyprus.

Expressing that in such a case, Turkey's Mediterranean region and Cyprus are likely to be affected by this, Pampal noted that Cyprus is located in the region called the Cyprus arc, and that a movement under the sea is always possible.

Pampal stated that the rupture affected the Arabian and Anatolian plates, and therefore the fault moved independently from the African plate, and that it was not correct to say that the area in which Cyprus is located, "will be broken" immediately.

Yıldız Technical University Natural Sciences Research Center President Prof. Dr. Şükrü Ersoy pointed out that he has no foresight that an earthquake will occur in Cyprus immediately, and that he has no scientific data, saying, "There is nothing that indicates an earthquake will occur today or tomorrow." 

Stating that the three biggest earthquakes that can be experienced occurred in Turkey, Ersoy said that they predicted the earthquake that occurred in Hatay on Monday night, that they expected a break in the open of Samandağ and that was what was expected.

Earthquake expert Ersoy, however, stated that they have no predictions about Cyprus and that they do not have any data in this direction, noting that the earthquakes experienced do not mean that they will create tension for Cyprus and trigger it immediately.

“Of course, Cyprus is not a very innocent place in terms of earthquakes,” said Ersoy, and when asked if there is a tsunami expectation in Cyprus, he said that there may be movements in the sea, and that 1 out of every 3 earthquakes in the sea may result in a tsunami.

Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan, on the other hand, said that he sees the possibility of an earthquake in Cyprus as very low for now.

Stating that some of the tension created by the 6.4 earthquake that took place the previous evening can be expected to be transferred to either the Cyprus Subduction Zone or the Ölüdeniz fracture.

“If Cyprus is transferred to the Subduction Zone, this may cause subduction type earthquakes in Southern Cyprus, Ercan said. The places where this will cause the most destruction may be Southern Cyprus. But the probability of that happening right now is very slim to me,” he said.

Stating that there is an earthquake arc in Northern Cyprus, but there is no immediate activity there, Ercan said, “I don't think an urgent warning is needed for Cyprus. "Earthquakes in the subduction zone are often devastating, but there is currently no scientific evidence that this will happen," he said.

Geologist Prof. Dr. Okan Tüysüz stated that the earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4, the epicenter of which was in Hatay, was attributed to the Latakia (Latakia) fault and stated that there is a possibility of an earthquake in the sea between Samandag and Cyprus, but it will not affect the land much.

Tüysüz stated that the 7.7-magnitude earthquake that occurred in Pazarcık district of Kahramanmaraş on 6 February started from Adıyaman Çelikhan and extended to Antakya, and that a 6.4-magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Defne district of Hatay on 20 February broke a fault between Samandağ and Antakya.

“The fault between Samandağ and Antakya enters the Mediterranean from Samandag and goes to the south of Cyprus with the Latakia (Latakia) fault. There is a chance that this benefit may have accumulated some stress. The 6.4 earthquake was loaded on the Latakia (Latakia) fault. There is a squeeze between Samandag and Cyprus, there is a possibility of an earthquake. I'm not saying it will happen, but if it does, it will be in the sea between Karpaz Zafer cape and Samandag, not on land.

When asked about the tsunami risk in the Mediterranean, Prof. Dr. Okan Tüysüz, “We know that there have been tsunamis in the Mediterranean and its surroundings in the past. But this fault is left-lateral strike-slip, the blocks of which move to the left. Faults whose blocks move to the left do not cause lowering or rising of the sea floor. A tsunami happens with a descent or a rise… I mean, I don't think there will be a tsunami, even if it is, it won't be strong," he said.

Source: Yeniduzen